Latest Mid-year UK Seafood Trade Data
This webpage highlights the key trends in UK seafood trade for a calendar year on a semiannual basis. The content focuses on emerging changes to seafood trade flows in and out of the UK.
The latest content covers the 12-months to June 2024. You can download a copy of this report in a pdf format at the bottom of the page. Analysed trade data is provisional and subject to change.
This page has information on:
General trade
- High freight costs linked to US-China trade war and attacks on maritime traffic in the red sea.
- New border control measures in the UK influence the rise in non-EU imports.
- UK and EU seafood consumption returning to growth as seafood maintains its importance as a protein source.
- Despite the positive direction overall in the last 12 months trade is still below 2019 figures and there is more than a £1bn shortfall in real terms value across imports and exports (total trade value in 2019 was £6.5bn adjusted for inflation).
Imports
- Seafood import volumes stabilise while prices of most products decline.
- Continued growth in cheaper wild caught and farmed whitefish as lower cod supply available globally.
- Growth in direct imports of processed and un-processed seafood from Asia.
Exports
- Seafood exports in full growth with higher demand for all products to key markets in EU and Asia, particularly shellfish to China.
- Pelagic exports see largest growth due to Scottish economic link requirement leading to increased landings
Total seafood supply remains steady as prices fall
Seafood import statistics for the first half of 2024 are encouraging. No longer in annual decline, import supply remains steady (-0.2%) at 1.13 million tonnes (live weight equivalent).
The value of seafood imports fell by 4.0% to £3.41 billion over the same period, driven by lower prices. The average price of imported seafood declined by 5.1%, influenced by both falling prices of like-for-like products and a shift toward lower-priced species and products.
Summary of key changes
A noticeable change in the 12 months to June 2024 was the growth of whitefish alternatives to cod. This change sees imports of wild capture whitefish, haddock and Alaska pollock outweigh the lost supply of cod. In part this change is driven by lower prices for alternatives to cod and lower cod availability on the global market.
Over the same period the supply of farmed whitefish like catfish, tilapia, seabass and carp saw significant growth as aquaculture production increases and consumers in the UK continue to choose cheaper seafood.
A second key shift was the growth of imports from non-EU countries, particularly Asia. These changes which effect tuna and whitefish imports were influenced by new border control measures and increased costs for processed products coming from the EU.
Species in numbers
While growth in freshwater species, salmon and shellfish imports outweigh the decline in pelagic species and other seafood products, the UK’s supply of demersal (whitefish) species stays the same.
Growth in haddock, Alaska pollock and other whitefish mitigate the decline in cod import supply.
The top 5 imported species of tuna, cod, salmon, prawns and haddock held their respective positions, making up 63% of total supply in live weight (figure 2). This was despite a continued annual decline in supply of tuna (-5.0%) and cod (-4.0%), the top two imported species.
Price inflation for imported tuna products was at +6.8% by June 2024, showing signs of recovery compared to December 2023 when price inflation reached +17.4% and annual volume decline was -12.3%.
Other top species returned to annual growth with salmon supply up 5.3% and shrimp and prawn up 2.9% in the 12 months to June 2024. Haddock supply continued to increase, up 8.2%.
The full data set is available to download at the bottom of this page.
The change in product format within the species composition also has implications for UK processing. Freshwater species were in volume growth, driven more by the increased proportion of whole/gutted or unprocessed products.
This may reflect processors using these species to manufacture core products such frozen breaded product for retail. Whereas volume growth in haddock imports is driven entirely by frozen fillets as the supply of whole/gutted haddock imports declined. This could reflect these products going direct for use in the food service sector where haddock sales have increased by 11% in the 12 months to June 2024.
Read more on seafood performance in food service via the link below:
Changes to supply and markets
Haddock and Alaska pollock replace lost cod supply
The Barents Sea cod quota reduced by 20% in 2024, significantly reducing the availability of cod on the global market. Similar cuts are also expected in 2025. However, cod import supply has only fallen 4.0% in the 12 months to June 2024 a decline of 8,073 tonnes. This smaller than expected fall is likely influenced by the importance of cod to the UK supply chain and could reflect the timeframe between cod being caught, processed and then imported into the UK.
Despite uncertainties with supply the UK imported 192,330 tonnes live weight equivalent of cod holding its place as the top wild caught whitefish species imported. Haddock and Alaska pollock followed with a combined 187,197 tonnes (table 1). Importers benefitted from a higher total allowable catch in 2024 for Alaska pollock and Icelandic haddock. The 7,896 tonnes (+8.2%) growth in haddock supply and 2,754 tonnes (+3.4%) of Alaska pollock supply outweighed the decline in cod.
The price of imported whitefish fell from record high levels in 2023. Alaska pollock fell an average of -24.4% to £2.65/kg and haddock fell -14.8% to £3.47/kg.
Cod import price also fell (but less severely than pollock or haddock at -11.0%) to £6.23/kg remaining above 2022 levels. The largest downward contributions to price came from imports from China (-11.7%). The price of cod consigned from Norway only fell by 6.2% reflecting lower supply and partly linked to new US trade sanctions on China origin cod. In May 2024, the US imposed a new ban on importing seafood “harvested in Russian waters or by Russia-flagged vessels”, which applies to products processed or transformed in third countries such as China. As a result, demand increased for Norwegian cod imported to China widening the price gap between Russian H&G cod at $5.00/kg and Norwegian H&G cod rising to around $7.00/kg1.
In the UK, a 35% tariff on whitefish imports consigned from Russia continued in effect two years after initial sanctions were introduced. Further measures haven’t been applied by the UK government amidst concerns over rising food inflation.
Growing supply of farmed whitefish
Consumers in the UK have continued to choose cheaper whitefish alternatives to cod including farmed whitefish such as catfish (pangasius) tilapia seabass and carp. Collectively, the supply of these species increased 9,474 tonnes (+14.6%) over the 12 months to 74,192 tonnes.
Globally, whitefish aquaculture faced high production costs in 2023 with global import volume falling for catfish (-22%), tilapia (-5%) but increasing for carp (+8%), seabream (+3%) and Seabass (+1%).
Although 2023 was a poor year for catfish production in major producing and supplying country Vietnam, the UKs proportion of imports increased. Planned expansion of farms in Vietnam, coupled with increased demand is expected to drive production and export growth in 2024.
In the 12 months to June 2024 catfish imports to the UK increased 6.5%. Catfish make up half of UK’s imported farmed whitefish supply at 36,204 tonnes. The decline in price for catfish products (-11.1%) contributing strongly to the average price of farmed whitefish falling -6.6% to £3.74/kg in the 12 months to June 2024.
Evidence of these changes can be seen in UK foodservice where one of the largest pub chains Greene King plans to increase the presence of tilapia in their fish and chip menu.
There is also renewed interest in farmed cod with well-known sushi chain YO! Sushi introducing Norwegian farmed cod to its menu over the period.
Growth in direct imports from Asia
The proportion of seafood imported from Asia increased to 33.7%, up 3.3 percentage points, driven by imports from China, Vietnam and India. The proportion from the EU fell 2.7 percentage points to 23.7%.
Whitefish imports from China, tuna from China, Maldives and Thailand, as well as shrimp from Vietnam, are driving import volume growth from Asia. These products are often already processed before entering the UK.
Products are increasingly being transported direct to the UK from Asia and South American countries rather than first going through the EU. Growth was not just in raw materials. Processed products from Asia, such as Alaska pollock and tuna have increased, species often sent to the EU for processing before entering the UK.
These changes have been attributed in part to the introduction of new UK import border control measures and increased freight costs for EU importers. Processors in Europe have been exposed to rising freight costs, particularly this has hit the pollock processing sector in the EU. UK Imports of frozen fillets of Alaska pollock from the EU fell 14.7% and increased 5.7% from China as average prices fell -25%. Collectively these factors could make it less economic to route imports via the EU compared to shipping direct.
Freight price hikes have been attributed to two major factors: attacks in the red sea and a global surge in demand for shipping containers from Chinese exporters aiming to beat the enforcement of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EV) from US and the EU.
The average price of imports from the EU continued in dis-inflation (where prices are rising but at a slower rate to before) sitting +8.1% higher than a year ago, whereas average prices from Asia have fallen -13.5%.
Total seafood exports return to full growth
Seafood exports returned to full growth in 2024. Export value increased by £136.9 million (+7.9%), as an additional 37,231 tonnes (+8.5%) of fish and shellfish live weight were exported compared to a year ago.
Average export prices remain high in 2024 compared to historic levels but fell £0.13/kg (-2.5%) over this 12-month period. This decline can be attributed to cheaper pelagic species making up a higher proportion of total exports, along with falling prices of shellfish products such scallops, crab and shrimp.
The full data set is available to download at the bottom of this page.
Summary of key changes
The main change to seafood exports in the 12 months to June 2024 was growth to EU and Asia of all species groups as price pressures ease and seafood consumption returns in major markets. Shellfish exports to China have also partly benefitted from a ban placed on Japanese imports.
Another key change to note was the major growth in exports of pelagic species of mackerel due to increased landings resulting from the Scottish Economic link requirement implemented the year before.
Species in numbers
Almost all species groups experienced growth apart from freshwater species (made up mostly of trout). Pelagic species contributed most to this upwards trend, increasing 22.6% over the 12-month period.
The top 5 exported species by volume were salmon, mackerel, herring, scallops and whelk. Making up 58% of total export volume, these top 5 species held the same ranked position to a year ago and most experienced volume growth.
A higher volume was exported of salmon (+5.3%), mackerel (+34.3%), scallops (+16.7%) and whelk (+8.2%). Herring export volume remained relatively steady, down -0.7%.
Mackerel exports achieved full growth of £42.4 million as the volume exported increased and prices increased 3.0%. Growth in exports of sardines (+127%) and blue whiting (+21.3%) also contributed to the performance of pelagic exports.
This comes a year after the Scottish economic link requirement was implemented, requiring Scottish vessels to land a higher proportion of their catch (including pelagic species) in Scotland. Despite the increase in domestic landings 53% of the volume caught by the UK’s pelagic fleet continued to be landed abroad mainly into EU and Norwegian ports, although this is expected to reduce further as the economic link provisions are implemented in full in 2025.
Changes to supply and markets
Growth in markets of EU and Asia as demand returns
The EU remains the largest market for UK seafood exports with a market share of 71%, up from 68% a year ago. Export volumes of most species to the EU experienced growth, particularly salmon, mackerel, sole, shrimp and crab.
Like in the UK, inflationary pressures have continued to ease in the EU, but shoppers remain cautious. Many European shoppers are still choosing cheaper protein sources, shifting the demand for capture fisheries products towards more reliably priced aquaculture products.
The market share of UK exports to Asia increased 0.7 percentage points to 13%, closing the gap on North America with a 14% share (-1.7 percentage points). Overall, exports to Asia increased £6.2 million (+2.6%) driven by exports of salmon to China and Taiwan, mackerel to Vietnam and Japan, nephrops to India and multiple shellfish species to China.
UK’s shellfish exports to China have grown by £10.9 million as exports of crab, whelk, nephrops and scallops increased. Like consumer choice in the UK and EU heading towards cheaper seafood options, in China demand for cheaper frozen ready-to-eat products is growing. China’s crab import supply increased 28% in 2023. Consumers have referenced frozen crab costing half the price of live crab, but say it tastes just as good.
Following a ban on imports from Japan in August 2023, China has sought out alternatives to meet imported seafood demand, including seafood from the UK. Japan’s decision to release treated wastewater from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean was cited as the reason for China’s ban. This has particularly damaged the Japanese scallop market. The value of scallops exported to China from the UK increased by 300% in the 12 months to June 2024 from £35.4 thousand to £152.3 thousand.
Rising geopolitical tensions disrupting global trade
Geopolitical tensions and protectionism are key terms increasingly employed to describe the volatility in global trade in 2024.
Research from The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) describes how increased geopolitical tensions have disrupted international trade since 2018, primarily due to the US-China tariff war and Russia’s invasion on Ukraine. Key trends include increased use of economic sanctions, growing adoption of import substitution policies to promote domestic industries, and a focus on national security or protectionism. In a speech in April 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron called for industrial sovereignty of Europe and warned that Europe faces possible demise if it doesn’t take action to tackle US and Chinese protectionism.
In May 2024, US President Joe Biden announced new tariffs on imports of Chinese Electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and solar panels. This follows findings that Beijing has supported its domestic industry with an estimated US$230 billion of subsidies between 2009 and 20235. This prompted Chinese exporters to rush shipments before the tariffs took effect in August, leading to increased demand for shipping containers and a surge in freight prices.
In June 2024, the European Commission revealed plans to also apply tariffs on Chinese EVs. The UK government hasn’t made announcements to follow the same action. Focus instead, is on the UKs decarbonisation strategy while weighing up the potential economic impact of retaliatory measures from China, such as targeting the UK's top goods export of cars.
In late 2023 and ongoing throughout the first half of 2024, global trade faced major disruptions in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait due to Houthi attacks on maritime traffic, linked to the Israel-Hamas war and ongoing Yemen conflict. Consequently, shipping companies continue to reroute vessels around Africa's southern tip, leading to increased commercial shipping costs, especially for Asia-EU routes.
Changes closer to home
The impact of Brexit continues to evolve, with the implementation of the Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) introducing new checks on goods entering Great Britain from the EU and EFTA countries, Greenland and Faroe Islands. The aim of the BTOM is to strike the appropriate balance between protecting the UK from biosecurity risks while also facilitating trade.
While the EU remains the UK's primary trading partner, these changes could reshape established supply chains. Some processed products no longer flow freely into the UK from the EU, as they now require similar checks and costs to importing from the rest of the world. The proportion of seafood imports from Non-EU countries has started to increase as the cost gap narrows between importing from the EU and the rest of the world.
Read more about seafood imports under the BTOM:
On a positive note, seafood consumption has shown signs of recovery, returning to full growth in the UK and rebounding in key EU markets. This trend suggests a plausible path forward for the seafood industry, with fish maintaining its importance as a protein source despite the challenging trade environment.
Read more on trends in UK seafood consumption and the future of fish as food from Seafish:
You can download a copy of the full report and acompanying data from the links below:
To access further information on our trade reports, please visit our Market Insight Portal or email joe.cooper@seafish.co.uk.